Is Notre Dame’s Independence Holding Them Back from a National Championship?
For Notre Dame and head coach Marcus Freeman, the agony of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) and falling short of a national title is worse than missing the playoffs altogether. As one of the few remaining independent programs, the Fighting Irish face unique challenges, and with the shifting landscape of college football, the question arises: Should Notre Dame finally join a conference?
The Case for Joining the Big Ten
While Notre Dame has long valued its independent status, the college football world is evolving. The Big Ten and SEC are solidifying their dominance, with each league likely moving to a nine-game conference schedule. The proposed College Football Playoff changes could favor conference champions, making it harder for an independent team like Notre Dame to secure a top-four seed.
As Spencer McLaughlin pointed out on the Locked On College Football podcast, joining the Big Ten could actually make Notre Dame’s path to the CFP easier. “Playing the bottom teams in the Big Ten on a rotating basis… you could have a schedule in the Big Ten that is easier to get to 9-3 and get in the playoff than whatever they would need here.”
Notre Dame’s Playoff Struggles
Since the CFP began in 2014, Notre Dame has qualified twice—in 2018 and 2020. However, they were overmatched in both appearances, losing by double digits to Clemson and Alabama. The Irish have also finished outside the top 14 five times in 11 years, missing the expanded playoff cut.
With the Big Ten and SEC likely securing the majority of automatic playoff bids, Notre Dame’s path as an independent may become even more difficult. Historically, their schedule has been tough, featuring multiple ranked opponents like USC and Texas A&M. While that boosts their strength of schedule, it also means they must consistently outperform teams with clearer playoff pathways.
New Playoff Proposal: A Blessing for the Irish?
While conference realignment looms, the potential expansion of the CFP to 14 or even 16 teams could actually work in Notre Dame’s favor. A proposed change to straight seeding—where teams are ranked purely by final standings rather than conference auto-bids—could ensure that Notre Dame is never penalized for its independent status.
Under this model, if Notre Dame finishes in the top four, they would receive a first-round bye—something they were previously ineligible for as a non-conference champion. Additionally, with five auto-bids (two for the SEC, two for the Big Ten, and three wild cards), there would be more opportunities for Notre Dame to secure a playoff spot.
What’s Next for Notre Dame?
With conference realignment, playoff expansion, and seeding changes all on the table, Notre Dame faces a critical decision. Will they maintain their independence, betting on a more inclusive CFP format? Or will the shifting landscape force them into the Big Ten, ensuring a clearer road to the title game?
One thing is certain: if the Irish want to finally break their national championship drought, they may need to reconsider their long-held stance on independence.