England’s upcoming clash against South Africa at Twickenham has all the makings of a heated encounter, fueled by both historical rivalry and recent tensions. While Ireland’s match against the All Blacks was seen as intense, this game may bring even more edge, especially in light of the controversial Bongi Mbonambi-Tom Curry saga during the Rugby World Cup semi-final last year. The incident, involving allegations of racial abuse, created a turbulent lead-up to that match and will likely linger in players’ minds as they face off again.
In their previous encounter, South Africa narrowly edged England 16-15 in the semi-final, one of three consecutive one-point victories that led to their World Cup triumph. England had been leading 15-6 with just over 10 minutes left, but a powerful impact off the bench, notably from Ox Nche, turned the tide. Nche, now a starting player, will aim to replicate that dominance in the scrums and disrupt England’s forwards once more.
England’s Form and Challenges
Under head coach Steve Borthwick, England enters this match amid mounting pressure after four straight defeats. While three of those losses came against New Zealand, the repetitive manner of their defeats has been a concern. Even a clash with a struggling Australian side ended in disappointment, with England conceding a last-minute try to lose at Twickenham.
England’s confidence is likely at a low ebb, and facing South Africa—a team in exceptional form in 2024—is far from ideal. The Springboks have combined their traditional strengths with a more expansive attacking approach, thanks to the influence of coach Tony Brown. For Borthwick, a poor result could lead to increased scrutiny despite reported backing from the Rugby Football Union.
Key Battles
England’s ability to contend with South Africa will hinge on their performance in the forward pack. Their scrummaging will face intense scrutiny, with Ox Nche and the Springboks’ formidable front-row ready to test England’s tightheads. England’s starting prop Will Stuart has shown improvement recently but will face his toughest challenge against one of the best scrummaging units in the world.
Another critical area will be England’s kicking game. The Red Rose had some success exploiting South Africa’s smaller backline during the World Cup, and with Freddie Steward and Tommy Freeman included, England will likely aim to contest the high ball. However, poor execution could expose them to South Africa’s lethal counterattacking threats.
Defensively, England must also improve significantly. South Africa’s more expansive style, featuring fast-paced wide play, could exploit England’s disorganized blitz defense. Players like Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, supported by creative playmakers Grant Williams and Manie Libbok, pose significant threats.
Selection Choices and Tactical Adjustments
England has made a few changes to their lineup, bringing in Ollie Sleightholme, Jack van Poortvliet, and Freddie Steward. These adjustments suggest a tactical shift toward a high-kicking strategy. However, questions remain about England’s ability to hold up in the set-piece and their resilience under pressure.
For South Africa, Rassie Erasmus has opted for a balanced lineup, with key players like Bongi Mbonambi and Ox Nche starting. Erasmus emphasized the team’s versatility and depth, acknowledging England’s potential despite recent losses. The Springboks also have the experienced Handre Pollard on the bench, adding a safety net in tight scenarios.
Players to Watch
The head-to-head battle between England’s Maro Itoje and South Africa’s Eben Etzebeth could prove pivotal. Both are integral to their respective teams’ lineouts and close-quarters work. Meanwhile, England’s Jamie George faces the challenge of rallying his forward pack against a highly physical Springbok outfit.
In the backline, England’s Henry Slade will need to vastly improve his defensive decision-making, while South Africa’s half-back pairing of Grant Williams and Manie Libbok could capitalize on any defensive lapses. The return of prop Wilco Louw to South Africa’s starting lineup adds another layer of intrigue, as he looks to reestablish himself at the international level.
Prediction and Context
Given the current form of both teams, South Africa is the clear favorite. While England has the potential to keep the game close, the Springboks’ superior set-piece, physicality, and expanded attacking arsenal should see them secure victory by around 10 points.
Previous Encounters
Recent results have generally favored South Africa, with notable victories in 2023 and 2022. However, England has had moments of success, including a narrow win in 2021.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, November 16
Venue: Twickenham Stadium
Kick-off: 17:40 GMT (19:40 SAST)
Officials: Referee Andrew Brace (Ireland) with assistants Chris Busby and Eoghan Cross
As both teams prepare for the clash, it promises to be a physically and emotionally charged encounter, with both sides looking to assert dominance in this storied rivalry.