The Toronto Maple Leafs are engaged in a fierce competition for the top spot in the Atlantic Division, hoping to secure an easier playoff matchup against the Ottawa Senators instead of facing tougher opponents like Tampa Bay or Florida.
Their recent struggles, including two losses to the San Jose Sharks, have cost them valuable points in the standings. However, the Sharks are an emerging team with promising young talent, making them more competitive than their record suggests. Despite the standings battle, the Leafs are also focused on integrating new players and ensuring the team is in sync before the playoffs begin.
Key Insights About the Toronto Maple Leafs
Mitch Marner’s Case for the Hart Trophy
Marner currently ranks sixth in NHL scoring with 89 points, just 19 points behind the league leader. His impact is even more impressive at even strength, where he is only 11 points behind Sidney Crosby, the 5v5 scoring leader.
Despite scoring at a rate similar to the league’s top players, Marner has had significantly fewer offensive-zone faceoffs than his competitors. For instance, he has taken 260 fewer offensive-zone draws than Nathan MacKinnon and nearly 200 fewer than Crosby. If Marner were deployed more offensively, similar to how other teams use their superstars, he could be leading the league in scoring.
Beyond his offensive production, Marner plays tougher minutes and contributes defensively at a higher level than many of the top scorers. Given his all-around impact, he deserves serious consideration for the Hart Trophy.
Optimizing Defensive Pairings
The current pairing of Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo has delivered strong results, but their underlying numbers show some weaknesses, particularly in puck possession, shot metrics, and scoring chances against.
Meanwhile, the Oliver Ekman-Larsson (OEL) and Simon Benoit pairing has struggled significantly, posting a 43% Expected Goals rating.
An alternative approach would be pairing Rielly with Tyler Myers. While their Expected Goals rating is slightly lower than Rielly/Carlo, the larger sample size and stronger underlying numbers suggest it could be a more sustainable option. Additionally, moving OEL alongside Carlo could help maximize his strengths by shifting him to his preferred side, creating a more balanced and effective defensive unit.
Pontus Holmberg Thrives with Star Players
Despite modest offensive numbers—six goals and 15 points—Holmberg has earned the trust of head coach Craig Berube. The reason? His ability to elevate his game when paired with elite talent.
When Holmberg plays without William Nylander, his production is comparable to that of Ryan Reaves. However, when paired with Nylander, their Expected Goals rating jumps to 57%, a mark of elite performance. The results are even better: when this duo is on the ice together, the Leafs control 63% of total goals scored.
Holmberg has also shown strong results when playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. However, he struggles when deployed as a defensive presence on the fourth line with players like Nick Robertson and Max Domi. Instead of keeping him in a bottom-six role, the Leafs should pair Holmberg with Nylander and John Tavares to maximize his impact.
Max Pacioretty’s Decline
Pacioretty had a strong start to the season, recording six points in his first eight games while helping the Leafs dominate opponents when he was on the ice. However, his performance has dropped significantly since then.
In his last 29 games, he has managed just three goals and four assists, with the Leafs being outscored 16-12 in those games. Since January 1, he has played only 12 games, recording just one assist while the Leafs have been outscored 6-2 when he’s on the ice. His Expected Goals rating has fallen to just 37%, suggesting he is struggling to make a meaningful impact.
Given these trends, the Leafs may need to reconsider Pacioretty’s role in the lineup. If he cannot regain his early-season form, his minutes could be better allocated elsewhere as the team prepares for the playoffs.