Kentucky vs. Tennessee: A High-Stakes SEC Clash in the Sweet 16
The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 brings another marquee SEC showdown as the 3-seed Kentucky Wildcats face off against the 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers. This will be the third meeting between the two rivals this season, with Kentucky having won both previous encounters—first with a 78-73 victory in Knoxville on January 28 and then a 75-64 win in Lexington on February 11. Despite Kentucky’s past success, Tennessee enters this matchup as the clear favorite.
Game Details & Betting Odds
Tipoff Time: 7:39 p.m. ET
TV Broadcast: TBS/truTV
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Betting Lines:
Point Spread: Tennessee -4.5, Kentucky +4.5
Moneyline: Tennessee (-205), Kentucky (+170)
Total Points Over/Under: 144.5
Key Matchup Storylines
Kentucky has defied expectations in both previous meetings, pulling off upsets as underdogs. The Wildcats were 10.5-point underdogs in their first victory over Tennessee and won again as 3.5-point underdogs in the rematch. The question now is whether they can stun the Volunteers for a third time.
Tennessee, with a 29-7 record (12-6 SEC), will look to avoid a season sweep against Kentucky (24-11, 10-8 SEC). The Vols have the advantage on paper, but past results indicate that the Wildcats know how to contain Tennessee’s offense, particularly its three-point shooters.
Key Player Prop Bet: Igor Milicic Jr.
One of the most intriguing player prop bets for this matchup involves Tennessee’s 6-foot-10 forward Igor Milicic Jr. While not the focal point of the Volunteers’ offense, he has consistently been productive against Kentucky.
Milicic to Score 10+ Points (+125 at bet365)
Milicic scored 19 points on 6-for-10 shooting in the first meeting.
He followed that up with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting in the rematch.
Over those two games, he hit 7-of-12 from three-point range.
Despite his strong performances, Kentucky still won both games, suggesting the Wildcats may allow him open looks again.
Milicic is a career 35% three-point shooter, meaning he is more than capable of taking advantage of any defensive lapses Kentucky might give him.
Game Predictions & Best Bets
Kentucky’s strength throughout the season has been its offensive efficiency rather than its defense. However, in their two previous meetings, the Wildcats forced Tennessee into two of its worst shooting performances of the year.
Game 1 (Jan. 28, Knoxville):
Kentucky held Tennessee to below 35% shooting overall.
The Vols shot a dismal 11-for-45 (24%) from three-point range.
Game 2 (Feb. 11, Lexington):
Tennessee improved to 43% from the field but struggled even more from deep.
The Vols hit just 3-of-18 three-pointers (17%).
While Tennessee’s coach, Rick Barnes, will likely make adjustments to improve his team’s offensive efficiency, Kentucky remains a dangerous opponent. The Wildcats shot 50% from the field and beyond the arc in both previous meetings, which puts immense pressure on Tennessee to improve defensively.
Kentucky is also coming off strong defensive performances against Troy (14-seed) and Illinois (6-seed), while Tennessee dominated Wofford in the first round and shut down 7-seed UCLA in the second round.
Final Betting Picks
Kentucky +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365) – 1 unit
Kentucky Moneyline (+170 at DraftKings) – 0.5 units
It’s difficult to beat the same team three times in a season, especially when coming in as an underdog each time. However, Kentucky’s defensive success against Tennessee and its efficient shooting make it a strong contender to at least cover the spread. The Wildcats have already proven they can disrupt Tennessee’s game plan, and with another solid performance, they could pull off yet another upset.