March Madness Midwest Showdown: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Troy Trojans
The Midwest Region of March Madness brings an exciting first-round clash as the 3-seed Kentucky Wildcats take on the 14-seed Troy Trojans. Under first-year head coach Mark Pope, Kentucky put together a strong season despite early roster setbacks, earning a No. 3 seed after navigating a tough SEC schedule. The Wildcats boast a storied history with eight national championships, making them a formidable presence in the tournament.
On the other side, Troy (23-10) secured their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2017 by clinching the Sun Belt Tournament title. Head coach Scott Cross has instilled confidence and resilience in his team, as seen in their 79-60 dominant victory over James Madison in the semifinals. With momentum on their side, the Trojans aim to pull off a historic upset.
Projected Lineups and Key Players to Watch
Kentucky Wildcats:
Lamont Butler (G) – Brings defensive intensity and playmaking
Otega Oweh (G) – Leading scorer (16.2 PPG, 1.6 SPG in the last 10 games)
Koby Brea (G) – Lethal shooter (43.9% from three, 11.5 PPG)
Andrew Carr (F) – Interior presence
Amari Williams (C) – Rim protector
Troy Trojans:
Myles Rigsby (G) – Defensive specialist
Thomas Dowd (G) – Perimeter shooter (30.7% from deep)
Jackson Fields (F) – Versatile wing
Tayton Conerway (G) – Star playmaker (17.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.3 APG)
Marcus Rigsby Jr. (F) – Inside scorer
For Kentucky, Koby Brea stands out as a potential game-changer. His three-point shooting (2.6 threes per game) gives the Wildcats a key offensive weapon. Meanwhile, Lamont Butler’s return from injury provides leadership and defensive stability.
Troy’s Tayton Conerway leads their charge, averaging an impressive 17.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game in his last 10 outings. If he can control the pace and attack Kentucky’s weak interior defense, the Trojans could make things interesting.
—
Game Breakdown: Offense vs. Defense
This matchup presents a classic offense vs. defense battle. Kentucky ranks among the nation’s top-scoring teams, averaging 85.3 points per game, relying on fast breaks and perimeter shooting. However, their biggest weakness has been defense, particularly in the paint.
Troy, on the other hand, thrives on defensive intensity and rebounding. They allow just 65.4 points per game and hold a +5.6 rebounding margin. However, their 29.9% three-point shooting is a major concern, especially against a high-powered Kentucky offense.
The Wildcats’ key to victory lies in hitting their outside shots and avoiding a repeat of last year’s first-round exit to 14-seed Oakland. For Troy, the path to an upset involves dominating the boards, forcing turnovers, and limiting Kentucky’s transition opportunities.
—
Predictions and Odds
ESPN BPI Predicted Winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted Point Differential: +13 (Kentucky)
KenPom Prediction: Kentucky 82, Troy 70
Kentucky Win Probability: 86%
Troy struggled in nonconference play against elite teams, suffering double-digit losses to Arkansas, Oregon, and Houston. Given Kentucky’s talent and firepower, it’s hard to see an upset unless the Wildcats endure an ice-cold shooting night.
With a high-powered offense and a coach eager to prove himself on the national stage, Kentucky has everything in place for a deep tournament run—but first, they must overcome the ghosts of last year’s early exit.