Florida State’s Tumultuous Journey: From Playoff Hopes to Conference Uncertainty
Florida State’s 2023 football season ended in heartbreak. After an undefeated regular season, their quarterback injuries cost them a College Football Playoff spot, and the downward spiral that followed was drastic. The 2024 season turned out to be one to forget, with the Seminoles managing just two wins. Now, heading into 2025, the program is dealing with significant off-field drama, particularly concerning its status in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).
The ACC Question: Is Florida State’s Future in the Conference Secure?
For months, speculation surrounded Florida State’s efforts to exit the ACC and join one of college football’s powerhouse leagues—the Big Ten or the SEC. However, both conferences have shown little interest in adding new members, especially those entangled in legal and financial disputes. With expansion already completed in 2024—USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington joined the Big Ten, while Oklahoma and Texas entered the SEC—the door seems to be closed for now.
Still, Florida State remains determined to move on from the ACC, citing the conference’s lower competitive resources compared to its wealthier counterparts. The most viable way for FSU to gain the attention of these elite conferences? A strong recruiting push.
Can Florida State Make the Playoffs in 2025?
On a recent episode of Locked on Seminoles, insider Brian Smith posed an intriguing question: Can Florida State go from a two-win season to making the College Football Playoff in 2025? At first glance, it seems unlikely. However, history provides an example—Arizona State, a three-win team in 2023, made the playoffs in 2024 thanks to strong recruiting and coaching changes.
Smith emphasized that a playoff run would not only signal on-field success but also put Florida State in a stronger position to attract interest from the Big Ten or SEC. The key to achieving this? Improved recruiting, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines.
Florida State’s Recruiting Efforts: A Step in the Right Direction?
Smith expressed confidence in the Seminoles’ defensive line recruitment, suggesting that the team had turned a corner in that area. However, he noted that offensive line play remains a major issue. Head coach Mike Norvell has already turned to the transfer portal in an effort to rebuild the roster following the disastrous 2-10 season in 2024. Among the key recruits in the 2025 class are Shamar Arboux, Jayvan Boggs, and Ousmane Ktomah.
But football isn’t the only factor in conference realignment. The Big Ten and SEC will also examine Florida State’s overall athletic program. That means improvements are needed in basketball and other sports to make the school a more attractive candidate for expansion.
Financial Boost: An Advantage or a Future Problem for the ACC?
Florida State’s ability to compete at a higher level received a major boost in early March 2025 when the ACC approved a new revenue-sharing model. Under this agreement, FSU is set to receive an additional $20 million per year—funds that could be used to enhance recruiting and strengthen the football program.
However, this financial shift comes with potential consequences for the ACC as a whole. Previously, one of the biggest barriers to Florida State and Clemson leaving the conference was the massive exit fee tied to ACC’s media rights deal, which ran until 2036. Schools attempting to depart faced a penalty of approximately $700 million.
That changed on March 3, when a new settlement dramatically reduced the exit fee to $165 million, with a yearly decrease of $18 million. While this new arrangement provides FSU and Clemson with an easier path out of the ACC, it also raises concerns about the long-term stability of the conference.
Some analysts warn that by shifting more financial resources toward these two programs, the ACC is essentially weakening its own foundation. If North Carolina or other prominent schools seek similar treatment in the future, the conference could face a full-scale collapse.
What’s Next for Florida State?
While FSU’s short-term focus is on improving its football program and making a playoff push in 2025, the broader question remains: Can they successfully transition to a stronger conference? The program’s recruiting efforts and financial advantages could make a move feasible, but uncertainty still lingers.
For now, Florida State must prove that it can consistently compete at an elite level. Whether through on-field success, recruiting dominance, or financial maneuvering, the Seminoles are positioning themselves for a future outside the ACC. The question is no longer if they will leave, but when—and at what cost.