Sea level rise has been putting low-lying atolls, such as the Maldives, in danger for many years. We’ve all heard the story by now. The earth warms, more water is lost annually from the polar ice caps due to erosion from the warmer ocean, and the oceans’ total volume of liquid water increases.
In the ensuing decades, sea levels may rise by many feet across continents, resulting in the loss of miles of shoreline. However, a great number of atolls, some of which are densely populated, will be entirely absorbed; this will be disastrous for humanitarian reasons. A little further down the line of concern, reef passes that are currently home to roaring surf may soon transform into deep-water reefs where surges hardly make a ripple.
That has been the theory, nonetheless.
However, in the last ten or so years, experts have been puzzled to learn that some atolls aren’t losing any shoreline at all despite sea level rise. Some are actually growing bigger.
Researchers Paul Kench and Arthur Webb published a study in 2010 that included a startling revelation. After mapping the coastlines of 27 low-lying atolls in the Indian Ocean with aerial data, they discovered that 86% of them had increased in size beyond prediction.
They’ve since looked at over a thousand of these islands, and the findings support the strangeness. As predicted, about half of the islands had decreased, with rising oceans reclaiming their borders; nevertheless, about half of the atolls had either grown or stayed stable.
Changing Coastlines and Varying Swells
These islands’ edges are forming differently. Islands with a ring shape transform into random sea star forms. Fishhooks take on the form of hearts. The opposing coasts may be expanding out into the sea, matching the sea level rise with development of their own, as portions of the atolls lose territory to increasing seawater. Rising sea levels cause swell and nearshore wave patterns to change, resulting in the creation of new beaches on portions of islands that had previously been below sea level due to the dumping of sand and marine debris.
“After searching through overhead photos, researchers discovered something shocking,” a June 2024 New York Times article about the Maldives states. “At first, they examined a few dozen islands, then several hundred, and finally nearly a thousand. They discovered that the boundaries of the islands had shifted during the last few decades, receding in some places and building in others. Overall though, their territory hadn’t gotten any smaller. In certain instances, on the other hand, they expanded. The islands grew as the sea levels rose.”
Atolls are peculiar locations. They are the resting place of once-powerful volcanoes that erupted violently out of the ocean, only to cool, sink, and fade away. Corals spread throughout the volcanoes’ vestiges as they went, and when the volcanoes finally disappeared, the corals were left behind, frequently arranged in rings that represented the general contours of the volcano that had formerly been their home.
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Sand and other debris were eventually washed up onto the reefs by waves. Where there had only been reef, land and flora suddenly emerged as a result of the wind blowing seeds and spores that gathered in the sand. Because of this, they are quite low and level, and experts have long predicted that when our waters warm up, these will be the first sites to disappear. However, oddly enough, that isn’t taking place as planned.
This is not to argue that fears about climate change and sea level rise are unfounded or that island nations such as the Maldives need not worry. The problem lies in the fact that atoll formation and the effects of increasing sea levels and warming are complex processes—more so than previously believed.
For example, it goes without saying that coral bleaching is detrimental to the health of coral reefs and the marine life that depends on them. However, when coral bleaches and dies, new species may eventually colonise the dead reef. This may draw fish to the dead reef, whereupon the fish may eat the new colonisers and generate sand, which may expand the atoll’s land area.
See? It’s not simple.
An Expensive Bet
In an attempt to avert the catastrophe of continuously rising oceans, government organisations in the Maldives are hard at work remodelling beaches, constructing harbours, and, in certain circumstances, creating whole new islands. However, what is becoming clear is that the hazards associated with sea level rise are erratic, unequal, and almost impossible to anticipate.
Beaches in other sections of the island become smaller as a result of attempts to shore up coasts, which frequently disturb sand flow (or, in the case of California, erode beaches up and down the coast). A massive game of whack-a-mole where billions of dollars and millions of lives are on the line.
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