Olympic Surfing Forecast: How Big Will Teahupo’o Be for Paris 2024?

The gymnastics mat doesn’t change. The basketball court is regulation. The pool, the track, the volleyball court…all the same, all the time. What makes surfing so unique, especially in an Olympic context, is that the playing field (the ocean) is ever-changing.

Fickle, firing, or flat.

Let us pray that it’s not the latter. And amidst our prayers, ahead of the surfing’s window at Paris 2024 (July 27th-Aug. 5th), we consulted a few folks who know Teahupo’o better than most. They read the tea leaves, checked the charts, and gave us a forecast.

The good news? There will be waves. The bad? Potential wind.

Here’s Dom Mosqueira, one of the main photographers bobbing in the lineup at Chopes:

“For the actual event window, there is swell. If it comes to fruition, the swell will be epic. Unfortunately, the winds are not. So, it will be super windy and weird, but there’s still time for that to change. And if it changes, it could be fire. If it stays the way it is, it’ll be onshore, west, death pits. If it comes together, and the wind starts to cooperate, it could be really good.”

And for a second opinion, here’s Ryan Gallina, a surfer who has lived in Teahupo’o for over 20 years, and father to the rising star, Kelia Gallina:

“We’re looking at not a long-interval storm, but a storm that’s coming decently close to Tahiti, so that will start filling in. And it’s coming from a really good direction. So, the first day, Saturday the 27th, is almost completely regular swell. Then Sunday is still normal-ish swell. By Sunday night, early Monday morning, you start to see the influence of this local storm. That’s going to change things up a bit.

“It’s not your standard Chopes, but it’s definitely interesting. If they’re saying four-to-five feet from that direction, it literally could be six-to-eight feet. That’s for the first three days of that window. But the winds could do anything. Almost anything can happen with the winds. But it won’t be small. There will be waves the first five days of the waiting period.”