What Daniil Medvedev did wrong against Carlos Alcaraz in Wimbledon SF: One overlooked factor that decided the Russian’s loss

Daniil Medvedev faltered against Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of the 2024 Wimbledon Championships on Friday, 12 July, conceding a 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 loss. This was notably only the third Grand Slam semifinal loss of the Russian’s career but a second straight defeat at the hands of Alcaraz at SW19.

Even though Medvedev fared better than his 2023 outing on Center Court to avoid a straight-set beating, the overall result didn’t change. The win in a marathon match against World No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals a couple of days earlier might have helped his confidence but it seemed to have taken a lot out of him as grunts could be heard from his side of the court uncharacteristically early on Friday.

Alcaraz played the way he had for most of his campaign at Wimbledon this year, struggling to feel the ball in the first set but finding the sweet spot with ease thereafter. The Spaniard went astray with his forehand multiple times initially but immediately resorted to his biggest asset—variety—and the drop shots were out.

Medvedev’s output at the net hadn’t been convincing by any measure over the fortnight before stepping on the court against the defending champion. This deficiency in his game had been overlooked by some observers in the winning causes but it factored in when it mattered the most.

Medvedev’s conversion rate at the net stood at a meager 57 percent (13/23) against World No. 88 Aleksander Kovacevic in the first round. It improved to 67 percent (30/45) against Alexandre Muller in the second round and further to 71 percent (15/21) versus Jan-Lennard Struff in the third. His numbers understandably took a hit during the five-setter with Sinner, resulting in the decrease of the net-point conversion rate to 66 percent (27/41).

Things worsened for Medvedev in the semifinal as he could win only 63 percent (35/56) of his points at the net. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, averaged 72 percent (38/53), topping every number at the net the Russian had registered during the 2024 Wimbledon Championships before Friday.

Though it’s uncertain whether drawing Medvedev to the net was pre-planned or done extempore by Alcaraz, it worked. The youngster was broken twice in the opening set but he managed to neutralize his opponent’s leads with as many breaks back to force a tiebreaker.

For Medvedev, it wasn’t just the errors while operating from the service boxes, it was about committing them in crunch situations. He drew first blood by breaking Alcaraz’s serve to love in the fourth game of the match but threw away the early cushion in the very next game with a poor display at the net.

Down two break points, Medvedev misplaced a volley from a quarter of the court to award the opponent an easy forehand pass down the line but to his good fortune, the Spaniard sent it wide. Moments later, he found himself with a game point but hit consecutive average volleys upfront inviting a cross-court backhand for another deuce.

Alcaraz then earned a break point and Medvedev erred again at the net with another pedestrian volley at Alcaraz’s forehand enabling the Spaniard to set up a lob that the 28-year-old reached but pushed wide, thus losing his serve. These mistakes didn’t cost the Russian too dearly straight away as he secured the opening set but they did seem to harm his confidence and provided Alcaraz breathers as the Russian blundered a couple of times while trying to be the aggressor, winning only 59 percent (10/17) of the net points.

The fifth seed’s morale took a further toll in the second set when he wasted three rallies at the net in the fourth game to lose his serve. The first horror show came at 0-15 when he couldn’t smash past the agile Alcaraz with a volley and decided to slow it down on the second overhead, pushing it wide.

The second was a backhand pass from the winner while Daniil Medvedev decided to charge after a relatively weak groundstroke. He lost the third point courtesy of a correctly placed but slow-paced volley that Alcaraz returned with a thunderous cross-court pass. This remained the solitary break of the set enabling the defending champion to level the scores. The Russian missed half of his shots (4/8) at the net during the set.


Daniil Medvedev improved at the net in the third set but not good enough as Carlos Alcaraz found his feet

Daniil Medvedev in action against Carlos Alcaraz. (Getty)
Daniil Medvedev in action against Carlos Alcaraz. (Getty)

Daniil Medvedev executed his shots at the net far better in the third set. Despite dropping his serve in the third game, he didn’t lose sight of Carlos Alcaraz on the scoreboard. As a matter of fact, the Russian bettered the Spaniard in a couple of exchanges at the net to restore his composure.

In the seventh game, he opened with a wide serve pushing the 21-year-old out of the playing area followed by a cross-court backhand directed at the opposite end of the court and rushed to the net at the right instance to finish the point with a deft touch. At deuce moments later, he drew Alcaraz in and out-volleyed him with his comprehensive net coverage to eventually secure a hold.

The ninth game saw Medvedev produce his outstanding rally of the match. Down 0-30, he served wide and approached the net on Alcaraz’s second return prompting the Spaniard to go for a lob. He ran the entire half of his side of the court and moonballed one extra return inducing an error of judgement from the opponent who netted it on the volley. He then secured three more points in a row to hold, asking the 2023 Wimbledon champion to serve out for the set.

Medvedev had the 21-year-old on the ropes in the first rally of the tenth game with a flurry of impeccable forehands but he wasted the opportunity with another mistake at the net as he let a high ball go, estimating it would land wide, which didn’t happen. Alcaraz went on to secure the third set. The Russian improved his net point conversion to 73 percent (11/15) in the set but his opponent finished one step ahead with an average of 86 percent (12/14).

The improvements the 28-year-old made showed up in his game in the fourth set as went toe-to-toe with Alcaraz in the fourth set. He faltered in the opening game to lose his serve but struck back immediately to return the Spaniard the favor. Medvedev saved his best at the net for last as he pulled off a flying volley to open the seventh game on a high, but all of it proved too little too late as Alcaraz’s jitters had faded away and his forehand began to flourish.

The 2024 French Open champion broke Medvedev in that game to take one more step toward the final. The following three games of the fourth set remained on serve and Alcaraz crossed the line after battling it out with Medvedev for two hours and 55 minutes.

Medvedev recorded a net-point conversion rate of 63 percent (10/16), not far worse than Alcaraz’s 65 (11/17), but the freebies the Russian awarded the eventual winner up front in the first and second sets had allowed him the time to shake off the rust on his weapons, regroup, and dominate the proceedings to reach the Wimbledon final for a second year straight.

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